STORM ANALYSIS

‘Being an Analysis of Atmospheric Influences

During Hurricane Season 2017′

Perhaps the most significant aspect of late summer – early autumn 2017 was the severity of the hurricane season, especially in the Caribbean / Atlantic region. We may therefore seek to make an analysis of the atmospheric activity and solar influences to assess whether there has been any relevant interaction or correlation in that area of interest.

It has been well recorded that, over the preceding months, most aspects of solar activity had been steadily declining, although Kp and Ap indices had been showing a somewhat contrary upswing. This influence, coincidentally, came to a peak just as the Hurricane season was starting and continued throughout the months of August, September and into October.


UPDATES 2018 SEASON…..

As a follow-on, it is notable that the 2018 season was strikingly different. Hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin was completely absent early in the season and reduced in the Pacific. According to N.O.A.A. -“This is the first August since 1997 to have had zero tropical storm formations in the Atlantic basin south of 30N”. Kp activity was also very flat at this point in time.

K-index Kp Aug 2018.gif  Ap index ap-index 2017-8TCItci 2017 -2018

This changed on 26th August 2018 with a very strong solar impact reaching Kp7. Within a week of this impact, a series of storms developed into hurricanes in the Atlantic (‘Gordon’ and ‘Florence’) and an increase in the intensity of activity in the Pacific (‘Norman’ and ‘Olivia’) was noted. (see : ‘OBSERVATIONS’). Florence went on to cause significant damage in the Carolinas, not so much because of the high wind speed (Cat.2 on impact) but because of the very slow speed of movement and resulting excessive rainfall and storm surge. The decline in Kp activity after this event was accompanied by a steady decline in storm strength in both main areas.

kp-index.png

A sharp burst of  ‘Kp’ activity recorded 7th/8th October 2018 was followed by an identifiable increase in Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane activity 9th/10th October. NHC reports – “…LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN … MICHAEL BECOMES CATEGORY 4 …NADINE STRONGER …SERGIO ACCELERATING..” (10thOcober 2018)


Harvey Chart.jpeg

 Harvey progress 1 jpg.jpg

‘HARVEY’ – Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.

Harvey progress jpg.jpg

                        (——— Impact————-) (– Response–)

Irma KP chart.jpeg

 

Irma Progress 1 jpg.jpg

‘IRMA’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.

Irma Progress jpg.jpg

                                          (———Impact—-)(—–Response—-)

 Jose Progress 1 jpg.jpg

‘JOSE’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.

Jose Progress jpg.jpg

………….(—Impact–)(-Response-)

Maria Progress 1 jpg.jpg

‘MARIA’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.

Maria Progress jpg.jpg

(—-Impact——)(—Response–)

October chart.jpeg

Ophelia peak.jpg

‘OPHELIA’ Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.

Ophelia chart.jpg

                                                    (————Impact—————————-)(—Response–)

===========================================

On assessing the relevant charts and cross-correlating the data, there does appear to be significant coincidence in the timing between the arrival of a ‘Kp’ impact and a corresponding increase in the intensity of the storm activity. Even with ‘Ophelia’ which, by both position and time should have been declining and had shown signs of starting to decline in intensity, showed a sudden increase coincident with the impact 11th to 15th October. This storm went on to cause significant damage in Ireland and South West UK.

Ap index Sep 17.jpg

This chart (above, courtesy NOAA) shows the anomalous increase in Ap index over recent years, and displays well the sudden upswing during August and September 2017, coincident with the unusually intense Hurricane activity during that season

 

20170824 harvey.gif

The deep atmosphere chart, above, shows that there was little steering activity present during the development of ‘Harvey’, allowing coastal interaction to become the dominant steering force. This tendency appears to have been a factor influencing the path of several of the storms this year.

Clearly there are many factors involved in the generation of a tropical storm, from atmospheric thermal and pressure profiles to the geo-magnetic environment. However, it is evident that incoming solar activity plays a significant role in the development and growth of this activity, potentially giving aggressive impetus to all of the factors involved. It is, as always, important to remember that short term ‘spikes’ may be lost in the monthly or long term averaging process however it should also be remembered that such short  term activity may have significant impact on the Earthly surface atmosphere.

C.D. 2017

Kp Impact August/September 2019

kp-index aug sep 19

Atlantic 02

Atlantic Chart 02-Sep-2019

Ap Chart

 

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5 thoughts on “STORM ANALYSIS

  1. Dr. James Van Allen unlocked the secret of Tropical Cyclone activity in 1962. His measurements of Starfish Prime, which were published in 1965, show a one-year time delay for the electrons to precipitate downward. The electrons in turn heat up the ionosphere where they then interact with the tops of thunderstorms within our troposphere-primarily above the earth’s equator. Tropical Cyclone Intensification is an electrical process being driven by electron precipitation from the Inner Van Allen Belt located directly above the Earth’s equator and Solar forcing induced ionization within Earth’s Ionosphere-where the cyclones serve to cool the ionosphere by wicking out the electrons.

    The mechanism behind Tropical Cyclone Intensification is described in detail within my Broadcom Master’s Weather Channel 2017 interview and my award winning 2018 New Mexico Google Science Fair entry titled “Van Allen’s Key: Unlocking the Secret of Yearly Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity”. The links that unlock the secret of Tropical Cyclone Intensification are provided here: https://www.googlesciencefair.com/projects/2018/171e50b2cff5898513e14907f2c63bbebafcd1827c2fb5bc575f3f1c0950a1b3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER_MaIUEeGc https://www.facebook.com/broadcommasters/posts/1637539636308237 https://www.goes-r.gov/mission/news.html

    The year 2018 has been a quiet year with regard to solar flare activity with no M or X class solar flares being recorded by NOAA. The exponential regressions contained in Figures 7, 8 and 9 of my Google Science Fair (see link above) return 2019 tropical cyclone activity estimates: ACE2019= 628 +/- 124 knots2; with 43 +/- 17 MHDs2019, and 134 +/- 27 HDs2019. As of September 1, 2019, worldwide accumulated cyclone energy (CSU) for CY2019 stands at 400.9 knots^2, roughly 64% of my CY2019 estimate of 628 knots^2.

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    1. Thank you for your comment.
      The Kp Index over recent days, shown above for the records,
      together with the extreme response of “Dorian” and the growth of disturbances “1”,”2” and “3” at the same time do tend to confirm the hypothesis. There are many influences involved; we know that such an impact causes physical expansion of the upper atmosphere and that such expansion influences pressure gradients lower down. Electromagnetic surging may also be involved. The reaction of existing surface level disturbances can be seen repeatedly.

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  2. A takeaway I noted from the sources below indicate that tropical cyclones can wick-out electrons above them for a radius of some 1000km or nearly 700 miles, as the tops of the clouds are positively charged.

    Real-time total electron content:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ctipe-total-electron-content-forecast

    Interesting reading (Google “Electron Precipitation Tropical Cyclone/Hurricanes”):

    “Analysis of Ionospheric Disturbances Associated with Powerful Cyclones in East Asia and North America.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Pergamon, 26 June 2017, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136468261730024X.

    Collaboration, Photograph by GRAPES-3. “Most Powerful Electrical Storm on Record Detected.” Over India, 23 Apr. 2019, http://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/04/most-powerful-electrical-storm-on-record-detected-india-thunderstorms-lightning/.

    Durgonics, Tibor, et al. “Multiinstrument Observations of a Geomagnetic Storm and Its Effects on the Arctic Ionosphere: A Case Study of the 19 February 2014 Storm.” AGU Journals, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 25 Jan. 2017, agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016RS006106.

    “Eruptions on the Sun Trigger Surprising Phenomenon near Earth.” ScienceDaily, ScienceDaily, 17 Mar. 2017, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170317132043.htm.

    Peter, W.B., and U.S. Inan. Electron Precipitation Events Driven by Lightning in Hurricanes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005, agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004JA010899.

    Rodger, Craig J., et al. “Radiation Belt Electron Precipitation Due to Geomagnetic Storms: Significance to Middle Atmosphere Ozone Chemistry.” AGU Journals, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 20 Nov. 2010, agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010JA015599.

    Scott, CJ. Evidence for Solar Wind Modulation of Lightning. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/055004.

    Winckler, J.R. The Cloud-Ionosphere Discharge: a Newly Observed Thunderstorm Phenomenon. 1997, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23391/.

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