‘Being an Analysis of Atmospheric Influences
During Hurricane Season 2017′
Perhaps the most significant aspect of late summer – early autumn 2017 was the severity of the hurricane season, especially in the Caribbean / Atlantic region. We may therefore seek to make an analysis of the atmospheric activity and solar influences to assess whether there has been any relevant interaction or correlation in that area of interest.
It has been well recorded that, over the preceding months, most aspects of solar activity had been steadily declining, although Kp and Ap indices had been showing a somewhat contrary upswing. This influence, coincidentally, came to a peak just as the Hurricane season was starting and continued throughout the months of August, September and into October. This is to be expected and would be in line with Russell-McPherron effect.
‘HARVEY’ – Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.
(——— Impact————-) (– Response–)
‘IRMA’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.
‘JOSE’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.
‘MARIA’– Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.
‘OPHELIA’ – Recorded peak intensity and (below) overall progress.
On assessing the relevant charts and cross-correlating the data, there does appear to be significant coincidence in the timing between the arrival of a ‘Kp’ impact and a corresponding increase in the intensity of any existing storm activity. Even with ‘Ophelia’ which, by both position and time should have been declining and had shown signs of starting to decline in intensity, showed a sudden increase coincident with the impact 11th to 15th October. This storm went on to cause significant damage in Ireland and South West UK.
This chart (above, courtesy NOAA) shows the anomalous increase in Ap index over recent years, and displays well the sudden upswing during August and September 2017, coincident with the unusually intense Hurricane activity during that season
The deep atmosphere chart, above, shows that there was little steering activity present during the development of ‘Harvey’, allowing coastal interaction to become the dominant steering force. This tendency appears to have been a factor influencing the path of several of the storms this year.
Clearly there are many factors involved in the generation of a tropical storm, from atmospheric thermal and pressure profiles to the geo-magnetic environment. However, it is evident that incoming solar activity plays a significant role in the development and growth of this activity, potentially giving aggressive impetus to all of the factors involved. It is, as always, important to remember that short term ‘spikes’ may be lost in the monthly or long term averaging process however it should also be remembered that such short term activity may have significant impact on the Earthly surface atmosphere.
If we look to the past, to the records, to the data we hold on Solar activity impacts, we can set them against known and recorded weather events. It is then possible to determine whether what we have seen recently is just a ‘one-off’ or whether it is a relatively normal occurrence. If the latter is the case, we can use that knowledge to assess the likelihood of similar hazardous activity in future.
HURRICANE ANDREW : Andrew began as a tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 16. After spending a week without significantly strengthening itself in the central Atlantic, it rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5 hurricane while moving westward towards the Bahamas on August 23. Though it briefly weakened to Category 4 status while traversing the Bahamas, it regained Category 5 intensity before making landfall in Florida August 24.
HURRICANE KATRINA : The storm originated on August 23, 2005, Early on the following day it then intensified as it headed generally westward toward Florida, strengthening into a hurricane only two hours before making landfall on August 25. After very briefly weakening again to a tropical storm, Katrina emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on August 26 and began to rapidly intensify. The storm strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane but weakened before making its second landfall as on August 29
When we do the comparison, it appears to become evident that any cyclonic activity present at the time of a Solar ‘Ap’ impact will immediately intensify, potentially to Cat:5, as the impact hits. We should, in future, be able to use our knowledge of impending Solar impacts – which we have available to us – assess the existence of cyclonic activity and gain advance warning of the likelihood of hurricane threat.
UPDATES 2018 SEASON…..
As a follow-on, it is notable that the 2018 season was strikingly different. Hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin was completely absent early in the season and reduced in the Pacific. According to N.O.A.A. -“This is the first August since 1997 to have had zero tropical storm formations in the Atlantic basin south of 30N”. Kp activity was also very flat at this point in time.
K-index Ap index TCI
This changed on 26th August 2018 with a very strong solar impact reaching Kp7. Within a week of this impact, a series of storms developed into hurricanes in the Atlantic (‘Gordon’ and ‘Florence’) and an increase in the intensity of activity in the Pacific (‘Norman’ and ‘Olivia’) was noted. (see : ‘OBSERVATIONS’). Florence went on to cause significant damage in the Carolinas, not so much because of the high wind speed (Cat.2 on impact) but because of the very slow speed of movement and resulting excessive rainfall and storm surge. The decline in Kp activity after this event was accompanied by a steady decline in storm strength in both main areas.
A sharp burst of ‘Kp’ activity recorded 7th/8th October 2018 was followed by an identifiable increase in Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane activity 9th/10th October. NHC reports – “…LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN … MICHAEL BECOMES CATEGORY 4 … NADINE STRONGER … SERGIO ACCELERATING..” (10thOcober 2018)
UPDATES 2019 SEASON
Kp Impact August/September 2019
Atlantic Chart 02-Sep-2019
“Ap” Record Aug/Sept 2019