OBSERVATIONS 2019

Weather Observations 2019

November 2019 ++++ USA TODAY Nov 26, 2019 Published 9:34 PM EST Amid winter storms, 615 flights have been cancelled within, into or out of the U.S. as of Tuesday evening. The majority of them are at Denver International Airport in Colorado, according to flight tracking service FlightAware.

18 November : BBC Weather has warned of more “severe” conditions to swamp Europe as polar vortex ‘collapses’ plunging Europe into deep freeze, the continent has battled heavy snow and rainfall in the past week with vicious flooding in Venice.

summit[1]

16 November : Exceptionally heavy snow covering parts of France and Northern Spain. Heavy snow on the Scottish mountain tops beginning what could be an exceptionally good skiing season.

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 15th–the earliest start in recorded history.  NASA / AIM spacecraft.

October 2019 ++++ 25th October. Seasons first light dusting on the Scottish hilltops.Fri 25 Oct 19

September 2019 ++++ September opens with Hurricane “Dorian” being upgraded to Cat. 5 EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED… Together with the formation of new Tropical Storm Juliet. NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. (NOAA)kp-index Aug 19

These events were immediately preceded by a large Kp impact 31st Aug. to 1st Sept. – an event in line with concepts outlined in “Storm Analysis” section.

August 2019 ++++ Australia’s New South Wales was hit by a cold snap that brought wintry conditions, a large mob of kangaroos were spotted frolicking in the snow across a rural field.

KANGAROOS SNOW_IN_AUSTRALIA

Much has been reported in the media related to the recent European heatwaves, however if we compare the present deep atmosphere chart with previous years we find the atmosphere significantly cooler now.

2019                                                                    2003

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July 2019 ++++Record breaking, though short term, jet stream intensity was recorded over US, 18th July.Jet Stream

Greek Storm +++Violent winds and rain hit Halkidiki in northern Greece on July 10. An elderly Czech couple were killed when their caravan was blown over. Two Russians and two Romanians also died, according to CNN.

++ T.S. “Barry” Burst to life US South Coast, 10th/11th Julykp-indexJulySharp spike in Kp activity immediately preceding acceleration of this activity. See “Storm Analysis” section.

June 2019 +++++ EUROPEAN HEATWAVE +++ The highest recorded temperature in Europe – 48C (118.4F) – was measured in Athens in July 1977, but on average the 20 warmest years since records began have all been within the past 22 years. (BBC)

The cause of this event has primarily been the ‘Deep Loop’ form of the Jet Stream with a cyclonic low pulling up Saharan tropical air.

Europe Heat 2019.png

With the ‘D-Day’ commemorations in full swing, it is perhaps relevant to compare conditions then and now. The met situation was critical to the original operation, bad weather causing a 24 hour delay.

2019 06 06 00

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Both Charts are for 06 June at 00z, upper 2019, lower 1944. Relevant to note that overall thermal profile and Jet Stream levels are further south in 2019 than in 1944.

   Icy conditions have swept across eastern Australia, bringing snow to areas as far north as subtropical Queensland.Snow in Queensland

May 2019 +++++ Record breaking snow and floods in much of USA this month.

May2019 Snow

Minnisota May 2019

April 2019 +++++ Overall UK and western Europe have been unusually cold, however If we compare the Scottish Mountains for the seasons 2018 and 2019 we can see this year has been significantly warmer in that area. The data is from Sunday 28 Apr 2018 and Sun 29 Apr 2019.

Sun 29 Apr 18 Sun 28 Apr 19

March 2019 ++++ Snow conditions on the Scottish Mountains give us a good visible measure of year to year variations in this important borderline region between Atlantic and Continental European weather zones. After a reluctant start and the unusually warm early Spring, skiing conditions are now excellent – 16th March 2019

Snow Conditions 16 03 2019

February 2019 ++++ Overall, February gave record breaking cold and snow across US, with 120/130 year records being broken in many areas, while Western Europe enjoyed a spell of unusual warmth – a classic demonstration of the ‘Deep Loop’ concept.

Flagstaff Snow

21 Feb 2019 +++ Flagstaff, Arizona had the snowiest day in its history (CNN). The 2.9 feet that fell made Thursday the snowiest single day in recorded history there, destroying the previous record of 31 inches set back in 1915. In Nashville TN, recent rainfall brought the month’s total to 13.5 inches, a new record for February that surpassed the previous record set in 1880.

10th Feb 2019 ++++An upsurge in Ap activity last week in Jan., first week in Feb., was followed by a brief uptick in TCI together with a twisting of the jet stream path giving an increase in the intensity of storm activity in the Atlantic (storm Erik) and in the Pacific. This also gives us an example of short term Ap spikes having an impact but not really showing up in the monthly averaged graph.

27 Day ap Jpeg 2.jpg

Frozen Hawaii.jpg

Maui was blanketed in snow at altitudes as low as 6200 feet–the lowest snowfall since 1952. At the 10,023-foot summit of Maui’s Haleakala volcano, many world-class telescopes were frozen solid:

02 Feb 2019 ++++ February opened with some extreme conditions in USA and Europe. Comparing the deep atmosphere charts for Feb 1st 2000, with those for Feb 1st 2019 shows significant increase in the intensity and extent of atmospheric cold in both areas.

USA 2000                                                                USA 2019

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Europe 2000                                                           Europe 2019

The Pyrenees have seen incredible snowfall, with some resorts reporting nearly 3 metres of snowfall in seven days and continuing. In the Alps, the western side, France and Switzerland, have seen good accumulations, over a metre in some cases. Fresh snow too for the Dolomites, Bulgaria and Norway; Scotland is finally getting its season moving.

North America this week has seen extreme cold, as low as -50ºC, due to the ‘Polar Vortex’ effect. In Australia unusually high temperatures (+46C) have been recorded. Low solar activity allows the atmosphere to contract, circulation patterns to move equatorward pulling down polar cold and digging deeper into tropical heat. Once established these patterns tend to remain stable in the solar quiet, exacerbating the extremes.


January 2019  +++++ Sharp contrasts between exceptionally heavy snowfall across Europe – worst in 30 years according to some reports – causing problems from Poland and Germany as far south as the beaches of Greece and Turkey, whilst in the mountains of Scotland – heavily covered last year – snow fall remains light and variable in 2019.

snow europe 2019

wed 9th jan

AP indexap-index 2017-8TCI indextci 2017 -2018

The reason can be seen in the Ap index chart. After the massive collapse from the equinox to solstice of 2017, the levelling out in 2018 and  increase towards the end of 2018, reflected in the behaviour of the Thermosphere Index, reduced the atmospheric pull to reduce the severity of the ‘Deep Loop’ effect at the beginning of 2019 so that only the core of Europe was affected. This arose from the coronal hole ‘Rumbling’ impacts throughout 2018.

The graph for 2017 demonstrates well, the ‘Russel Mcpherron’ effect of spikes at the equinox, dips at solstices, together with the reason for the severity of the 2017 hurricane season (Refer ‘Obs. Sept = 2017’) and the comparative quiet of the 2018 season.

The symmetry between Ap index and TCI index is clear and the cause and effect response undeniable, the slight delay in reaction measurable. It should be noted however, that while a long term build up may take several weeks to achieve a high level change, a short sharp impact may give measurable results within a few days.

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